The F#*k-it Economy
Consumers are in a bad place, but they continue to spend despite consumer sentiment falling to its lowest levels since the great recession of 2008-2009.
Our own indices of gaming spend show that spending on gaming throughout the U.S. was up 8.6% through August of 2025, with the month of August posting even stronger results. 33 of 38 brick and mortar markets are up year to date, a remarkable turnaround from 2024 when 22 of 38 markets were declining. Collective spending on casinos and sports gaming was up $4.2 billion through August 2025 with brick and mortar markets accounting for approximately 25% of that growth.
And, data shows it’s not just the gaming industry that is experiencing growth. From August of this year, weekly online restaurants reservations on OpenTable have been consistently up between 7% and 10% over the same period last year. And, according to TD Economics, vehicle unit sales in the U.S. were up 6.7% in September and per Focus2Move, are up 4.6% year to date.
So what’s going on here? Excuse my language, but I am going to label this the f#*k-it economy. Now, there might be some wealth effect driving consumer spending as well, with asset prices approaching bubble levels, but I have a hunch and think this is more akin to the post-COVID revenge spending boom. The current mood in the country is dark as evidenced by the Consumer Index and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, so maybe, just maybe, consumers are spending because of their distemper, choosing not to hunker down in a time of emotional distress.
Consumer dependent firms like the casino industry can ride the wave while it lasts but as usual, I have concerns. A look at consumer credit outstanding through the second quarter of 2025 indicates a marked decline in the growth of consumer credit.
Interestingly, according to the United States Courts, bankruptcy filings were up 11.5% for the year ending June 2025, with business filings up less than 5% and non-business filings up over 11%.
Something is going on. Tread carefully.